Characteristics and risk factors of COVID-19 mortality in Tamaulipas, one year after the pandemic / Características y factores de riesgo de mortalidad por COVID-19 en Tamaulipas, a un año de pandemia

Resumen Coronavirus 19 (COVID-19), es una enfermedad viral prevalente y diseminada a nivel mundial, considerada una pandemia con alta tasa de mortalidad. A la fecha no existen estudios que describan la influencia de las variables asociadas a la enfermedad en el estado fronterizo de Tamaulipas, México. El objetivo del presente estudio fue evaluar y analizar las características, complicaciones, tasas de letalidad y factores de riesgo asociados a mortalidad en paciente positivos a COVID-19 en el estado de Tamaulipas, a un año de la emergencia local. Se utilizó la frecuencia de casos observados en relación a características, complicaciones y comorbilidades para estimar prevalencias y tasas de letalidad. Se ajustó un modelo de regresión logística multivariada para estimar los factores de riesgo significativos y se utilizaron curvas de supervivencia de Kaplan-Meier para describir las comorbilidades más importantes. Los análisis indicaron una mayor infección en pacientes en edad productiva, con una probabilidad significativa de muerte a partir de los 40 años, más evidente en pacientes masculinos. Los riesgos asociados a la hospitalización, como intubación endotraqueal y neumonía, son factores muy importantes. Las comorbilidades con alta prevalencia (diabetes, hipertensión y obesidad) y enfermedad renal crónica (ERC) están asociados significativamente (P < 0.01) a mayor mortalidad por COVID-19 en pacientes positivos. El presente estudio demostró algunos patrones generales de prevalencia y tasas de letalidad por COVID-19, por lo que se sugieren particularidades en los factores asociados a mortalidad en la población de Tamaulipas que requieren atención en sus grupos vulnerables, sobre todo en posibles casos de rebrotes de la enfermedad.

Abstract Coronavirus 19 (COVID-19) is a prevalent and globally disseminated viral disease that has become a pandemic associated with a high case fatality rate. To date, there are no published studies that describe the influence of the variables associated with the disease, specifically in the border state of Tamaulipas, Mexico. The objective of the present study was to assess the characteristics, complications, fatality rates and risk factors associated to mortality in patients positive to COVID-19 in Tamaulipas, one year after the local emergency. Descriptive frequency of characteristics, complications for prevalence and case fatality rates were used. A multivariate logistic regression model was adjusted to estimate the meaningful risk factors, and Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to describe the most important comorbidities. The analysis indicated higher infection rates in patients of productive age, with a significant death probability in male patients from the age of 40. The risks associated with hospitalization, such as endotracheal intubation and the presence of pneumonia are important risk factors. Comorbidities with high prevalence; diabetes, hypertension, obesity, and chronic kidney disease (CKD) were significantly associated (P < 0.01) with higher COVID-19 mortality risk in the assessed population. The present study demonstrated some COVID-19 general patterns on frequency and mortality rates. It also suggested particularities in factors associated to mortality in the Tamaulipas population, which require proper attention in vulnerable groups, especially in future outbreaks of the disease.

Indirect impact of COVID-19 on the incidence rates of vector-borne diseases in Mexico.

INTRODUCTION: SARS-CoV-2 infection spatial and temporal distribution overlaps with endemic areas of vector-borne diseases (VBD), whose surveillance in Mexico has substantially changed since the first COVID-19 confirmed case. OBJECTIVES: To estimate and compare the incidence rates of VBDs before and after the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico. METHODS: Retrospective study of VBD cases from 2014 to 2021. The incidence rates of each VBD in the period before (2014-2019) and after (2020-2021) the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico were calculated and compared. RESULTS: Before the introduction of SARS-CoV-2, the incidence rates of VBDs were high and after the introduction of coronavirus there was a decrease in epidemiological indices; however, there was only statistically significant difference in the incidence rate of malaria (p ≤ 0.05) and other rickettsiae (p ≤ 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Some measures to reduce COVID-19 cases, such as social distancing, home confinement, reductions in public transport and working at home (home office), probably temporarily decreased the number of VBD cases; however, there may be a resurgence of VBDs in the near future.

INTRODUCCIÓN: La distribución espacial y temporal de la infección por SARS-CoV-2 sobrepasa las áreas endémicas de enfermedades transmitidas por vector (ETV), cuya vigilancia en México ha cambiado sustancialmente a partir del primer caso confirmado de COVID-19. OBJETIVOS: Estimar y comparar las tasas de incidencia de las ETV antes y después de la introducción del SARS-CoV-2 en México. MÉTODOS: Estudio retrospectivo de casos de ETV de 2014 a 2021. Las tasas de incidencia de cada ETV en el periodo previo (2014-2019) y posterior (2020-2021) a la introducción del SARS-CoV-2 en México fueron calculadas y comparadas. RESULTADOS: Antes de la introducción del SARS-CoV-2, las tasas de incidencia de las ETV fueron altas y posterior a la introducción del coronavirus hubo un descenso en los índices epidemiológicos; sin embargo, solo se identificó diferencia estadística significativa en la tasa de incidencia de la malaria (p ≤ 0.05) y otras rickettsias (p ≤ 0.05). CONCLUSIONES: Algunas medidas para reducir los casos de COVID-19, como el distanciamiento social, el confinamiento domiciliario, la reducción en el aforo en el transporte público y el trabajo en casa, probablemente contribuyeron a disminuir temporalmente el número de casos de las ETV; sin embargo, puede haber rebrote de las ETV en el futuro cercano.

Indirect impact of COVID-19 on the incidence rates of vector-borne diseases in Mexico / Impacto indirecto de COVID-19 en las tasas de incidencia de enfermedades transmitidas por vector en México

Resumen Introducción: La distribución espacial y temporal de la infección por SARS-CoV-2 sobrepasa las áreas endémicas de enfermedades transmitidas por vector (ETV), cuya vigilancia en México ha cambiado sustancialmente a partir del primer caso confirmado de COVID-19. Objetivos: Estimar y comparar las tasas de incidencia de las ETV antes y después de la introducción del SARS-CoV-2 en México. Métodos: Estudio retrospectivo de casos de ETV de 2014 a 2021. Las tasas de incidencia de cada ETV en el periodo previo (2014-2019) y posterior (2020-2021) a la introducción del SARS-CoV-2 en México fueron calculadas y comparadas. Resultados: Antes de la introducción del SARS-CoV-2, las tasas de incidencia de las ETV fueron altas y posterior a la introducción del coronavirus hubo un descenso en los índices epidemiológicos; sin embargo, solo se identificó diferencia estadística significativa en la tasa de incidencia de la malaria (p ≤ 0.05) y otras rickettsias (p ≤ 0.05). Conclusiones: Algunas medidas para reducir los casos de COVID-19, como el distanciamiento social, el confinamiento domiciliario, la reducción en el aforo en el transporte público y el trabajo en casa, probablemente contribuyeron a disminuir temporalmente el número de casos de las ETV; sin embargo, puede haber rebrote de las ETV en el futuro cercano.

Abstract Introduction: SARS-CoV-2 infection spatial and temporal distribution overlaps with endemic areas of vector-borne diseases (VBD), whose surveillance in Mexico has substantially changed since the first COVID-19 confirmed case. Objectives: To estimate and compare the incidence rates of VBDs before and after the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico. Methods: Retrospective study of VBD cases from 2014 to 2021. The incidence rates of each VBD in the period before (2014-2019) and after (2020-2021) the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico were calculated and compared. Results: Before the introduction of SARS-CoV-2, the incidence rates of VBDs were high and after the introduction of coronavirus there was a decrease in epidemiological indices; however, there was only statistically significant difference in the incidence rate of malaria (p ≤ 0.05) and other rickettsiae (p ≤ 0.05). Conclusions: Some measures to reduce COVID-19 cases, such as social distancing, home confinement, reductions in public transport and working at home (home office), probably temporarily decreased the number of VBD cases; however, there may be a resurgence of VBDs in the near future.

Incidence and lethality by COVID-19 in the population of the Federal District: an ecological study / Incidência e letalidade por COVID-19 na população do Distrito Federal: um estudo ecológico / Incidencia y letalidad por COVID-19 en la población del Distrito Federal: un estudio ecológico

Background and objectives: understanding the social situation of COVID-19 in poor and less developed countries is still doubtful. Thus, this study aimed to estimate the incidence and lethality by COVID-19, according to the per capita income of the administrative regions of the Federal District (FD). Methods: this is a descriptive ecological study, based on secondary data. Thirty-one administrative regions of the FD were included, and the population consisted of 382,488 individuals. The variables considered were sex, incidence, mortality, lethality, age group, population estimate and education. Results: despite the greater contamination by women, in terms of total mortality, more men died, representing 57.3% of the total deaths in the period. Regarding the influence of the level of education and income on the incidence, it appears that the highest rates of confirmed cases occurred in groups with higher levels of education and income. Despite this higher incidence, it is the group that exhibits the lowest lethality and the third lowest mortality per 100,000 inhabitants. Conclusion: the highest incidence rates were observed in regions with higher per capita income. On the other hand, lethality occurred more incisively in regions with lower purchasing power. In view of this, it is necessary to apply long-term preventive measures in unequal regions.(AU)

Justificativa e objetivos: o entendimento da situação social da COVID-19 em países pobres e menos desenvolvidos ainda é dubitável. Desse modo, o objetivo deste estudo é estimar a incidência e letalidade por COVID-19, de acordo com a renda per capita das regiões administrativas do Distrito Federal (DF). Métodos: trata-se de um estudo ecológico descritivo, baseado em dados secundários. Foram incluídas 31 regiões administrativas do DF, e a população foi composta por 382.488 indivíduos. Consideraram-se como variáveis sexo, incidência, mortalidade, letalidade, faixa etária, estimativa populacional e escolaridade. Resultados: apesar da contaminação maior por parte das mulheres, em termos de mortalidade total, mais homens foram a óbito, representando 57,3% do total de mortos no período. A respeito da influência do grau de escolaridade e da renda na incidência, verifica-se que os maiores índices de casos confirmados aconteceram em grupos com maior nível de escolaridade e de renda. Apesar dessa maior incidência, é o grupo que exibe a menor letalidade e a terceira menor mortalidade por 100.000 habitantes. Conclusão: as mais altas taxas de incidência foram observadas nas regiões com maior renda per capita. Por outro lado, a letalidade ocorreu, de forma mais incisiva, nas regiões de menor poder aquisitivo. Diante disso, é necessário aplicar medidas preventivas de longo prazo em regiões desiguais.(AU)

Justificación y objetivos: la comprensión de la situación social del COVID-19 en los países pobres y menos desarrollados aún es dudosa. Así, el objetivo de este estudio es estimar la incidencia y letalidad por COVID-19, según el ingreso per cápita de las regiones administrativas del Distrito Federal (DF). Métodos: se trata de un estudio ecológico descriptivo, basado en datos secundarios. Se incluyeron 31 regiones administrativas del DF, la población estuvo conformada por 382,488 individuos. Se consideraron como variables el sexo, la incidencia, la mortalidad, la letalidad, el grupo de edad, la población estimada y la escolaridad. Resultados: a pesar de la mayor contaminación por mujeres, en términos de mortalidad total, fallecieron más hombres, representando el 57,3% del total de defunciones en el período. En cuanto a la influencia del nivel de educación e ingresos en la incidencia, parece que las tasas más altas de casos confirmados ocurrieron en grupos con mayores niveles de educación e ingresos. A pesar de esta mayor incidencia, es el grupo que presenta la menor letalidad y la tercera mortalidad más baja por 100.000 habitantes. Conclusión: las tasas de incidencia más altas se observaron en las regiones con mayor ingreso per cápita. Por otro lado, la letalidad se produjo de forma más incisiva en las regiones de menor poder adquisitivo. Ante esto, es necesario aplicar medidas preventivas a largo plazo en regiones desiguales.(AU)

[Case-fatality rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection according to Autonomous Communities during the second epidemic wave in Spain]. / Tasas de letalidad por SARS-CoV-2 según Comunidades Autónomas durante la segunda onda epidémica en España.

INTRODUCTION: In Spain, health systems are transferred to the Autonomous Communities (AC), constituting 19 health systems with differentiated management and resources. During the first epidemic wave of COVID-19, differences were observed in reporting systems and in case-fatality rates (FR) between the AC. The objective of this study was to analyze the FR according to AC. during the 2 nd epidemic wave (from July 20 to December 25, 2020), and its relationship with the prevalence of infection. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A descriptive observational study was carried out, extracting the information available on the number of deaths from COVID-19 registered in the Ministry of Health, the Health Councils and the Public Health Departments of the AC, and according to the excess mortality reported by the System Monitoring of Daily Mortality (MoMo). The prevalence of infection was estimated from the differences between the second and fourth rounds of the ENE-COVID study and their 95% confidence intervals. The global FR (deaths per thousand infected) were calculated according to sex, age groups (< 65 and ≥ 65 years) and AC. The age-Standardized Fatality Rates (SFR) of the AC were calculated using the FR of Spain for each age group. These estimates were made with officially declared deaths (FRo) and excess deaths estimated by MoMo (FRMo). The correlations between the prevalences of infection and the FRo and FRMo were estimated, weighting by population. RESULTS: For the whole of Spain, the FRo during the second epidemic wave was 7.6%, oscillating between 3.8% in the Balearic Islands and 16.4% in Asturias, and the TLMo was 10.1%, oscillating between 4.8% from Madrid and 21.7% in Asturias. Significant differences were observed between the FRo and the FRMo in the Canary Islands, Castilla la Mancha, Extremadura, the Valencian Community, Andalusia and the Autonomous Cities of Ceuta and Melilla. The FRo was significantly higher in men (8.2%) than in women (7.1%). The FRo and FRMo were significantly higher in the age group ≥ 65 years (55.4% and 72.2% respectively) than in the group <65 years (0.5% and 1.4% respectively). The Basque Country, Aragon, Andalusia and Castilla la Mancha presented SFR significantly higher than the global FR of Spain. The correlations between the prevalence of infection and the FRo were inverse. CONCLUSIONS: The case-fatality from COVID-19 during the second epidemic wave in Spain improved compared to the first wave. The case-fatality rates were higher in men and the elderly people, and varied significantly between AC. It is necessary to delve into the analysis of the causes of these differences.

COVID-19 epidemiology in a Mexican tertiary care hospital.

INTRODUCTION: As a result of COVID-19, many hospitals underwent a conversion for the care for this disease. OBJECTIVE: To analyze COVID-19 hospital epidemiological behavior from March to August 2020. METHODS: Through a series of cases, COVID-19 epidemiological behavior at the hospital was analyzed, for which simple case rates, percentages and incidence of COVID-19 per 100 hospital discharges were estimated. RESULTS: Out of 491 subjects who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, 156 (31.7 %) were hospitalized for clinical data of moderate to severe disease. Average age was 59.1 years; 121 cases (75 %) were discharged due to improvement, and 32 (20.5 %), due to death. Average age of those who died was 69.7 years, and the most affected age group was 60 to 80 years (45.4 %). Calculated lethality was 20.5 per 100 hospital discharges, while that calculated taking into account positive patients (outpatients and hospitalized patients) was 6.5. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 epidemiological behavior was similar to that described in other studies; however, lethality and mortality are above national average. The analysis of this and of the factors that favored it in our population is pending.

INTRODUCCIÓN: A consecuencia de COVID-19, numerosos hospitales sufrieron una reconversión para la atención de esta enfermedad. OBJETIVO: Analizar el comportamiento epidemiológico hospitalario de COVID-19 entre marzo y agosto de 2020. MÉTODOS: En una serie de casos se analizó el comportamiento epidemiológico de COVID-19 en un hospital de tercer nivel, para lo cual se estimaron frecuencias simples de casos, porcentajes e incidencia por cada 100 egresos hospitalarios. RESULTADOS: De 491 sujetos con prueba positiva para SARS-CoV-2, 156 (31.7 %) fueron hospitalizados por datos clínicos de enfermedad moderada a grave. La edad promedio fue de 59.1 años; 121 casos (75 %) egresaron por mejoría y 32 (20.5 %), por defunción. El promedio de edad de quienes fallecieron fue de 69.7 años y el grupo etario más afectado fue el de 60 a 80 años (45.4 %). La letalidad calculada fue de 20.5 por 100 egresos hospitalarios, mientras que la calculada tomando en cuenta los pacientes positivos (ambulatorios y hospitalizados) fue de 6.5. CONCLUSIONES: El comportamiento epidemiológico de COVID-19 fue similar al descrito en otros estudios; sin embargo, la letalidad y la mortalidad están por encima de la media nacional. Está pendiente el análisis de estas y de los factores que las favorecieron en nuestra población.

Towards a predictive model for prevention of the risk of COVID-19 infection.

INTRODUCTION: The scarcity of person-centered applications aimed at developing awareness on the risk posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, stimulates the exploration and creation of preventive tools that are accessible to the population. OBJECTIVE: To develop a predictive model that allows evaluating the risk of mortality in the event of SARS-CoV-2 virus infection. METHODS: Exploration of public data from 16,000 COVID-19-positive patients to generate an efficient discriminant model, evaluated with a score function and expressed by a self-rated preventive interest questionnaire. RESULTS: A useful linear function was obtained with a discriminant capacity of 0.845; internal validation with bootstrap and external validation, with 25 % of tested patients showing marginal differences. CONCLUSION: The predictive model with statistical support, based on 15 accessible questions, can become a structured prevention tool.

INTRODUCCIÓN: La escasez de aplicaciones centradas en la persona y con vistas al desarrollo de la conciencia del riesgo que representa la pandemia de COVID-19 estimula la exploración y creación de herramientas de carácter preventivo accesibles a la población. OBJETIVO: Elaboración de un modelo predictivo que permita evaluar el riesgo de letalidad ante infección por el virus SARS-CoV-2. MÉTODOS: Exploración de datos públicos de 16 000 pacientes positivos a COVID-19, para generar un modelo discriminante eficiente, valorado con una función score y que se expresa mediante un cuestionario autocalificado de interés preventivo. RESULTADOS: Se obtuvo una función lineal útil con capacidad discriminante de 0.845; la validación interna con bootstrap y la externa, con 25 % de los pacientes de prueba, mostraron diferencias marginales. CONCLUSIÓN: El modelo predictivo, basado en 15 preguntas accesibles puede convertirse en una herramienta de prevención estructurada.

Case fatality of COVID-19 in patients with neurodegenerative dementia. / Análisis de letalidad por COVID-19 en pacientes con demencia neurodegenerativa.

INTRODUCTION: The elderly population is the group most threatened by COVID-19, with the highest mortality rates. This study aims to analyse the case fatality of COVID-19 in a cohort of patients with degenerative dementia. METHODS: We conducted a descriptive case-control study of a sample of patients diagnosed with primary neurodegenerative dementia. RESULTS: Twenty-four of the 88 patients with COVID-19 included in the study died: 10/23 (43.4%) patients diagnosed with dementia and 14/65 (21.5%) controls; this difference was statistically significant. DISCUSSION: Our results suggest that case fatality of COVID-19 is significantly higher among patients with primary degenerative dementia than in other patients with similar mean ages and comorbidities.